- Bitcoin has dropped by more than 20% since its January record.
- Coinbase says it is a sign that crypto is now on a lower market.
A bear market is on us.
Well, at least if you look at the cryptographic markets via traditional tools, David Duong, a world research manager of Coinbase, argued in a blog article on Wednesday.
The average mobile model at 200 days on Bitcoin “signals potential long -term leased trends on the overall market”, wrote Duong, referring to a metric that measures the 200 previous days of closing prices and prevents them to filter noise and short -term fluctuations and long -term long -term trends.
The position comes three months after the inauguration of Donald Trump as 47th President of the United States.
The cryptography market observers provided that its second term would trigger a bull market thanks to its pro-industrial platform. The inauguration coincided with the Record Bitcoin price of $ 108,786.
While Trump has launched several initiatives to soften the regulation of cryptos in the United States, uncertainties concerning its commercial policies have launched the world economy in chaos and given Bitcoin fall by more than 20% since January 20.
For Duong, this dive is a key indicator that, rather than a bull market, the crypto has entered a bear.
But he notes that there are more reasons for us to potentially entered a cryptographic winter.
New definitions
Recognizing a crypto lowering market can be delicate.
In equity markets, analysts are based on the basic rule that assets are considered to have entered the bear market territory when the price drops by 20% compared to its recent market.
The problem is that Bitcoin and Altcoin regularly swing by more than 20% in both directions.
Doug argued that the 20% rule is not the only metric to consider.
Analysts should also look for “early alert panels” such as investors fleeing risk assets for safer ports like gold.
“The total market capitalization of cryptography excluding Bitcoin now amounts to $ 950 billion, a sharp drop of 41% compared to its December 2024 summit of 1.6 Billion of dollars and 17% below the levels of the same period last year,” wrote Doug.
Another indicator of a crypto winter? The venture capital is also “down 50 to 60% compared to the levels observed during the peak of the 2021-22 cycle”, wrote Duong.
“All these structural pressures arise from the uncertainty of the wider macro environment, where traditional risk assets have been faced with opposite winds from tax policies and prices,” wrote Duong.
Not to say that the Winter of the Crypto has started – although Duong says that the 200 -day average mobile model puts the start of a lower market in early March – the Coinbase researcher warned that a “defensive position on risk” is necessary for the moment.
Despite this, Duong suggested that the market could recover in the third quarter of 2025, “May” being the word operating.
“For the moment, the challenges of the current macro environment require greater caution,” he said.
Andrew Flanagan is markets for DL News. Do you have a tip? Handle aflanagan@dlnews.com.
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